Italian GP Pre-race Power Ratings

Grand Prix DB provides each driver’s statistical rating prior to the start of the race. A rating of 1.00 is the highest possible score. Here are the Grand Prix DB Power Ratings for the Italian GP:

1. Felipe Massa, 0.87
2. Heikki Kovalainen, 0.85
3. Lewis Hamilton, 0.81
4. Nick Heidfeld, 0.75
5. Fernando Alonso, 0.74
6. Kimi Raikkonen, 0.71
7. Jarno Trulli, 0.66
8. Robert Kubica, 0.66
9. Mark Webber, 0.64
10. Timo Glock, 0.55
11. Sebastian Vettel, 0.55
12. Sebastien Bourdais, 0.55
13. Nelson Piquet Jr, 0.53
14. Nico Rosberg, 0.52
15. David Coulthard, 0.46
16. Kazuki Nakajima, 0.39
17. Rubens Barrichello, 0.38
18. Jenson Button, 0.31
19. Giancarlo Fisichella, 0.30
20. Adrian Sutil, 0.25

After an unbelievable qualifying, Sebastian Vettel is now the youngest driver to ever win pole position for an F1 race. The performance of the Toro Rosso team was backed up by Sebastien Bourdais’s best ever qualifying in fourth. Not only was it a banner day for Toro Rosso, it was a strong showing for the Red Bull family as Mark Webber slots in to the third grid spot.

So can Vettel convert tomorrow? A lot depends on the weather. But make no mistake, Vettel has run strongly in the past in wet conditions, and he was also fastest in Q2 today. It just might be a remarkable weekend for the German.

Also looking very strong is Heikki Kovalainen, who soundly outran his teammate in Q1 (and of course, Q2). Given the relative strength of the McLaren team, he looks to be the favorite for tomorrow.

In row 2 are sentimental favorites. For Webber. seemingly on the road to stardom a few years ago when he signed with the then BMW Williams team, high finishes have been few and far between since then. Meanwhile, Bourdais is fighting to keep his place in F1, and another strong result tomorrow will go a long way towards securing his future.

Clearly the driver coming out the worst today is Lewis Hamilton. Once again he and his McLaren team suffered from an unforced error by choosing to go with intermediate tires at the beginning of Q2 when the track was at its fastest for the session. What Hamilton can do with P15 on the grid remains to be seen. Most importantly, he must avoid getting involved in a silly collision on the first lap. A disturbing trend, however, is that Hamilton’s misfortunes have come in two’s this season.

There was Malaysia, where Hamilton was demoted five grid spots for blocking in Q3, immediately followed by Bahrain, where he ran into the back of Fernando Alonso early in the race. Then there was the infamous Canada pit lane collision immediately followed by his first chicane cutting penalty in France. And finally we have the even more infamous second chicane cutting penalty immediately followed by what may happen tomorrow. Will the trend continue or be broken? The answer may hold the key to the eventual outcome of the championship. It he stays clean in the early part of the race, it could be a great day for Hamilton just for that.

Starting just one place ahead is Kimi Raikkonen, who could really play an important supporting role for his teammate by holding Hamilton back and out of the points. However, I doubt that Raikkonen would play into such tactics. It is not that he isn’t a team player, but like Hamilton, he still must believe a strong result is possible if he can just stay out of trouble early on and then work his way up the field.

Finally, Felipe Massa looks to be in a good position to move up in the points standings. However, sixth on the grid is still a fairly dangerous place to start in terms of getting caught up in a fracas. And just what does Massa have for the rest of the field is unclear. He has not been higher than fifth in any session this weekend. He might not be able to take advantage the way some would expect unless he can find more pace and not commit any mistakes.