F1 2009: Championship Predictions

We’re just a few hours away from the first free practice session of the 2009 F1 season. With sweeping rules changes introduced for this year, it is very hard to predict which driver or team will come out on top. Furthermore, offseason testing created more questions than answers with the new Brawn GP team (nee Honda, nee BAR, nee Tyrrell) setting the pace while McLaren were uncharacteristically near the bottom of the time sheets.

We’ve seen many sites providing previews and assessments of the upcoming season, but no one seems foolish enough to actually rank the contenders. That’s where GrandPrixDB comes in. After all, we have no advertisers to answer to and no subscribers to entice to pay us. Basically how much Web traffic we generate has no bearing on whether or not we can put food on the table. So what follows is our predictions for the top 6 drivers in this year’s championship. And when the inaugural Abu Dhabi Grand Prix comes around November 1st, we can either have a good laugh or toast our cleverness.

#6: Lewis Hamilton – Despite McLaren’s struggles in preseason testing, it will be mistake to write off the defending champion. However, his team’s inability to roll off the trailer in testing with a car that adequately manages oversteer means that Hamilton begins the season at a disadvantage to his rivals. Depending on how many races it takes for McLaren to recover, Hamilton may not be able to make up lost points from the opening rounds of the Championship.

#5 Jenson Button – Based strictly on two weeks of testing and the fact that the brilliant Ross Brawn is in charge of the entire operation, it seems that at least one of the team’s cars will be able to consistently run at the front and score points regularly. Nevertheless, it is never easy to build a race-winning organization, let alone overcome the lack of testing miles and high off-season drama that Brawn GP has dealt with just to make it to the grid. When the car is good, Button is at his absolute best. So we expect him to shine in 2009 and score a lot of points. But the team will experience growing pains and little mistakes here and there will mean that Button won’t enjoy the consistency throughout the season to be Champion.

#4: Felipe Massa – Ferrari have been near the front in testing and they have two very competitive drivers. They will win their share of races. But there have been nagging reliability issues that bring into question how many races the team’s cars will be able to finish this season. Certainly, when unreliability rears its ugly head, Kimi Raikkonen seems to suffer the worst. Massa has upped the technical side of his game during his tenure at Ferrari, and this added piece in his arsenal may enable him to deal with less than ideal conditions better than his teammate.

#3: Nick Heidfeld – Written off by many after being thoroughly thrashed by teammate Robert Kubica last year, there are many signs pointing to a big year for the super smooth German driver. He is still quick and perhaps the smoothest driver in F1. We believe smoothness will be utterly important this year as the 2009 cars have much more tendency towards oversteer and subsequent wearing of the rear tires than any in recent memory. Additionally, his active record of 28 straight classified finishes suggests an incredibly sympathetic touch and consistency in a variety of circumstances. His relatively small stature should also allow better ballasting of his chassis when integrating the 35kg KERS system compared to teammate Kubica. Perhaps Heidfeld will be able to run KERS for every race this season. Heidfeld showed the world just how quick he is in 2007, and with BMW Sauber continuing its upward progress, Heidfeld should return to the front of the grid and be in the Championship hunt for the entire season.

#2 Fernando Alonso – The Spanish driver proved he is the best in the business last year by playing a pivotal role in improving the dreadful Renault R28 from low mid-packer to race winner by the end of the season. The new R29 is pure ugly, but it has been reliable and reasonably quick in testing. Factor in the intangibles that Alonso, the two-time Champion, brings to the table combined with the ability of his Renault team to rise to occasion, and you have a legitimate contender. The only factor that will prevent Alonso from adding a third Championship will be the ultimate pace of the R29.

#1 Robert Kubica – Our pick for 2009 World Champion is Robert Kubica. In 2008, he combined his incredible natural pace with race savvy, reliability, and consistency. There is no underestimating Dr. Mario Theissen’s deliberate hand in building BMW Sauber into a championship-winning team. Testing proceeded in a very typical and undramatic manner for the team. While they were not the pacesetters, they experienced few if any reliability problems, and seemingly few if any problems in understanding how to tune the chassis. They had no reason to show off their pace in testing and this weekend, they will unleash their true pace. The team’s steady improvement over the past three seasons is right in line with how other teams throughout history have evolved into the top teams of their generation. In comparing the two BMW Sauber drivers, Kubica has proven to be quicker, and in 2008, he became a race winner. This edge will be the difference in vaulting Kubica to the Championship.

There you have it. It’s time to go racing in Melbourne and we look forward to a great 2009.