2009 Australian GP Pre-race Power Ratings

Grand Prix DB provides each driver’s statistical rating prior to the start of the race. It is a moving numerical ranking of possible long run future success. The highest ranked driver does not necessarily have the best chance to win the upcoming race, but is in the strongest position to have the best overall results over the long term. As a driver experiences more success over a series of events, their rating increases, and vice versa. A rating of 1.00 is the highest possible score.

Here are the Grand Prix DB Power Ratings prior to the 2009 Australian GP:

1. Sebastian Vettel, 0.84
2. Robert Kubica, 0.82
3. Felipe Massa, 0.79
4. Kimi Raikkonen, 0.76
5. Jenson Button, 0.74
6. Rubens Barrichello, 0.74
7. Fernando Alonso, 0.69
8. Timo Glock, 0.68
9. Nico Rosberg, 0.67
10. Jarno Trulli, 0.63
11. Nick Heidfeld, 0.60
12. Mark Webber, 0.58
13. Lewis Hamilton, 0.54
14. Nelson Piquet Jr, 0.43
15. Kazuki Nakajima, 0.42
16. Heikki Kovalainen, 0.41
17. Sebastien Buemi, 0.33
18. Sebastien Bourdais, 0.31
19. Giancarlo Fisichella, 0.25
20. Adrian Sutil, 0.20

The amazing Brawn GP are taking full advantage of their technical superiority at the moment by having its two drivers lock out the front row. With a healthy gap to the rest of the field, many are predicting a runaway by Button and Barrichello. But things are never so easy in racing and the Brawn drivers certainly will have their hardest work of the weekend ahead of them in tomorrow’s race.

Red Bull’s Vettel continues to amaze with his ability to put it all together for qualifying. Despite limited practice due to technical problems and driver error on Vettel’s part, he was still able to put in a lightening lap to take third on the grid. And as he proved in the second half of ’08, Vettel’s qualifying pace proves to be no fluke in the race itself. However, as we all saw in practice, reliability could be a major issue for Red Bull on Sunday.

BMW Sauber’s Kubica, the most consistent driver of ’08, is once again poised to pounce if any of the top three cars falter. With three upstarts ahead of him on the starting grid and the expected season points contenders a nice gap behind, it will be interesting to see how Kubica approaches the early part of the race. I believe all things taken together, BMW Sauber is the best prepared team for ’09, so I do not see them wasting a chance for a valuable points haul with a glory run for the front on the opening laps. And it is certain that they will be expecting a podium finish tomorrow.

The Ferraris actually looked pretty good on the track and their lack of ultimate pace is a bit surprising. It will be an interesting battle to see if the KERS-equipped Ferrari drivers can overcome the “diffuser” teams of Toyota and Williams who are not running KERS.

As we wait to see the weights of the cars for race published, comes the news that McLaren will change the gearbox on Hamilton’s car and he will start last on the grid. If there were ever a time for a driver to live up to his team’s hype…

It is refreshing to see Williams and Toyota, along with Brawn fighting at the front with legitimate pace. The early flyaway races can distort reality in comparison to the usual form taking hold when the European races come around. Yet, the ’09 Australian GP takes unpredicability to a new level and we are guaranteed to see more surprises in tomorrow’s race.