Initial Reaction to Kubica v. Vettel

Sebastian Vettel is a brilliant driver. Even at just 21 years of age he clearly has what it takes to one day become World Champion. However, his incident in the closing stages of the 2009 Australian GP with Robert Kubica as both were fighting for second place was ultimately Vettel’s doing.

Yes, technically speaking both drivers were at fault. Kubica could have waited to make a later pass, or given Vettel more room in the corner. Vettel could have, and should have, given up the corner.

The speed differential was completely due to the tire situation. Vettel was on the softer compound and his tires were through with their golden laps. He was a sitting duck. Kubica ran the ideal strategy by qualifying light and running the soft tires in a short first stint. This allowed him to run the medium compound tires in the critical last stint and he was clearly faster by this point.

From the perspective of Vettel, when a driver has a car that is so many kilometers per hour slower than a passing car, the right thing to do is give up the corner to the faster car. There were still three laps to go and the only way the slower Vettel could prevent Kubica from eventually overtaking was to take him out.

The situation would have been different had they been on the last lap. Then it is every driver for themselves. However in this case, there were three laps remaining and Kubica was going to make every effort to take the fight to race leader, Jenson Button. Even if things had worked out with Vettel, chances are that Kubica would not have caught Button. But recognize this. When the soft compound tires went off, they went off in a big way to the tune of 3-6 seconds per lap. It was not inconceivable that Button’s tires may have gone off and Kubica, who was the fastest of the leading cars at the time, could have had a last second attempt to snatch the race lead. The key was to get by Vettel as quickly as possible, which meant taking the chance as soon as the opportunity presented itself.

For Vettel the end result is a DNF and no points. Judging by the way his race went up to the point of the accident, these lost points might be very critical at the end of the year. Although he was no match for Button, he was not too far away either. Vettel was the class of the “best of the rest” behind the Brawn GP cars. Clearly, Adrian Newey has designed a very good chassis, and it is reasonable to expect the Red Bull to get even better as the year goes on. A Championship push would not be out of the question. As we have seen in the last two seasons, every single point is valuable. And if Vettel finds that he is a handful of points short in the end… I guess we can all say, “What if?”

For Kubica his move was, in vernacular terms, all about street cred. He was clearly committed to closing out the race with every last nanosecond of pace left in his car. And any sliver of opportunity to take an upset victory over the Brawn cars (how ironic is that statement!) was not going to be given up without a fight. Both he and Vettel had equal amounts to lose. Now Vettel and everyone else will know that in similar circumstances, they will either need to be willing to take a DNF or simply give up on a losing battle.

Foolish you might say? Well consider what happened last year in the Japanese GP when Sebastien Bourdais on pit exit failed to give up a corner to the flying Felipe Massa. It was Bourdais who ended up getting penalized. The precedent set by the FIA is that in battles for position, if one car is clearly faster than the other at the point of contact, any resulting penalties will be given to the slower car.