It's Beginning to Look a Lot Like Vettel

We at GrandPrixDB certainly don’t consider ourselves to be a Red Bull motorsports blog. So it’s merely a coincidence that most of our recent posts have been written about either Red Bull Racing or Scuderia Toro Rosso.

Before the season started there was much deliberation amongst our contributors about the season’s prospects of Sebastian Vettel. He could have ended up on our prediction as high as champion or as low as out of the top 6. Of course, clinging to the past prevailed and Vettel was left out, while members of the old guard such as drivers from Ferrari, McLaren, and BMW Sauber were included.

While it seemed impossible that a team like BMW Sauber, which sacrificed a genuine opportunity to win both World Championships in ’08, who put extra effort into designing its ’09 challenger, could fall so far short of the mark. At least in the first few races of the new season, this is exactly what has happened.

As far as Red Bull, they have never been anything close to contenders. But the lesson is that you should never underestimate genius. And in the case of Red Bull, there are two: driver Vettel and chief technical officer Adrian Newey.

There is no denying Newey’s genius. His successes at Williams and McLaren were characterized by innovation and attention to design detail. There were also failures, most notably the McLaren MP4-18, but this season Newey has gotten it right. His unique approach to the sweeping new technical regulations has resulted in a chassis that is different and innovative without relying on controversial interpretations of the letter of the law.

Many consider the pullrod design of the rear suspension to be a major obstacle in implementing the “trick” diffuser design that is featured on the Brawn, Toyota, and Williams. However, that is not the way the mind of Newey works. Certainly there is no reason to panic. Instead, he has been handed an opportunity to upgrade an already fast machine, maybe the fastest in the field at the moment. He may not be able to design a new diffuser exactly the way his rivals have, but he will certainly be able to figure out how to exploit this newly endorsed interpretation of the regulations.

And right now in F1, there is no driver who is better at getting the most out of Newey’s creations as Vettel. He handles oversteer with a lack of drama and is devastatingly effective at getting in a golden lap in qualifying. Yet, he has also shown the ability to take it easy on equipment and tires when necessary.

The notable exception of course was at the season-opening Australian GP. We have already made our argument that Vettel’s penalty was deserved. And as the season evolves, it becomes more evident that Vettel’s mistake might cost him. Consider that if he were sensible and settled for 3rd place, not only would he have 6 additional points, but he also would have avoided the 10-spot grid penalty assessed for the Malaysian GP. He certainly had potential for a high finish and more points in Malaysia. Vettel could have been in a position to take the Championship lead this weekend in Bahrain.

Yet, the past is the past, and Vettel is showing that even these lost opportunities are not a deterrent to his progress this season. In yesterday’s qualifying session, it was Vettel who appeared to be holding back by running a heavier fuel load than the rest of the top contenders. There is no reason, other than reliability of the equipment, to think that Vettel will not be able to convert his 3rd starting spot into another victory. And if he does so, suddenly it will be Jenson Button and Brawn who will be on the defensive, looking to preserve as many points as possible on each race weekend. And since the Brawn already has the advanced diffuser design, it seems there is less potential for improvement compared to the Red Bull.

There may be no stopping Vettel and Red Bull in ’09.