Can BMW Sauber Do It?

I suppose the question cannot be ignored. After Robert Kubica’s great win last weekend, can BMW Sauber win the title? Well, if we are talking about the Constructor’s Championship, I can comfortably say, “No.” Over the remainder of the season, it will be difficult for any team to overcome Ferrari. There is not much debate there.

The Driver’s Championship possibilities are more difficult to predict. History is littered with examples of drivers who have won the title without the season’s fastest car. However, the list gets much shorter when we are considering the season’s third fastest. On many weekends, BMW Sauber is just that the third-fastest behind Ferrari and McLaren. Occasionally, they have been second fastest, and perhaps Kubica has flattered the car’s potential with a few monster qualifying laps. But those weekends are few and far between. The team must close the gap to the top two teams on a “typical” weekend to realistically allow Kubica to contend for the championship.

Nevertheless, Kubica leads the points thanks to his consistency. And if it weren’t for Kazuki Nakajima drop kicking him in Australia, that lead would be even bigger. (By the way Hamilton fans, Kaz was given a 10-spot gird penalty in the following race for causing an avoidable accident.) But mere consistency is usually not enough. The most recent example being Heinz-Harald Frentzen’s 1999 season. His consistency put him in a realistic position to contend with three races left in that season. Then while leading the race, a heart-breaking electrical failure eliminated him from the European Grand Prix and put an end to his championship aspirations.

So could the 2008 season be different? Interestingly, instead of coming out with statements that they’re disappointed but are redoubling their efforts to fight for the championship, certain McLaren team members made statements that bordered on the bizarre.

Lewis Hamilton following the Canadian GP: “Going forward the mood is strong. The fact is we destroyed everyone this weekend. With the car we have right now there is no stopping us.”

Hamilton on the next race in France, where he will be served a 10-spot grid penalty: “I feel quite confident that we can still win there. That’s my job,”

And the number 1 quote that makes you go, “Hmm” comes from McLaren team doctor Aki Hintsa: “We can measure the mental stress levels in the drivers as well as fatigue. The autonomic nervous system — the bit that governs the physical effects of stress — is much stronger in Lewis this year.

“We have sophisticated ways of measuring these things and Lewis has improved physically as well as mentally since the start of the season.

“His statistics are very impressive and this will not affect him one little bit.

“When he knows the car he has is the quickest on the circuit he is pretty much unbeatable — an incredible specimen in any sport.”

In Montreal, there is no doubt that Hamilton was very strong. However, in the period leading up to the safety car period, the fastest laps were being turned in by Kimi Raikkonen. Not only did he record the race’s fastest lap, but he also took chunks out of Hamilton’s lead. And on face value, a straight comparison of Q2 versus Q3 lap times suggests that Raikkonen may have been carrying more fuel on board for the first stint. Furthermore, Raikkonen is a driver who has a great knack of finding traction, and he seemed to finally adapt to the critical exit of the hairpin, the place where he lost so much time in qualifying. Considering that Hamilton would have slotted in behind Kubica and Raikkonen had all three continued after the safety car period, it is presumptuous to say that Hamilton “destroyed everyone.”

By itself, Hamilton’s first quote could be dismissed as fightin’ words. However, when he follows it up by proclaiming that he is confident he will win in France, one begns to wonder if Hamilton and McLaren are in a proper state of mind. The final confirmation comes from Dr Hintsa’s esoteric argument regarding Hamilton’s mental fitness. Taken together, McLaren appears to be in total denial for the upcoming races, where Ferrari and BMW Sauber should be at their best. McLaren and Hamilton came away with only half the points they were probably expecting from the Monaco-Canada combo. The prospect of now having to contend with Kubica in addition to Raikkonen and Felipe Massa must have them feeling defensive about their immediate prospects.

All it takes is for Kubica to edge ahead of the McLaren drivers for the championship to become a true four-way battle. If BMW Sauber can rise to become the second-fastest team on the grid, then they do have a realistic chance of defending the Driver’s Championship lead. Earlier in the season, both myself and Ron Dennis dismissed BMW Sauber’s challenge. Now, seven races into the season are enough to show that I was wrong. The next challenge is for the team to prove to the world that they can rise to the occasion and compete wheel-to-wheel with the best.

To his credit, Kubica is realistic about the championship. He plainly stated, “Of course it’s a good feeling but I think it will be difficult to defend this position.

“Realistically speaking, we are missing a bit of performance to Ferrari and McLaren.”

When it comes to the championship, Kubica really does not have anything to lose. Hardly anyone would have predicted he would be leading the points at this stage. This is what makes him a dangerous contender if the team can provide the necessary support. Alternatively, as the unbeatable specimen, the destroyer, Hamilton is suddenly positioned as the one with everything to lose.