Once again, Monaco proves to be a race that plays a critical role in the championship. A hard fought win by Lewis Hamilton was perhaps his best, but it also has vaulted him into the lead in the championship. Meanwhile, another disappointing Monaco GP for Ferrari leaves the team now on the defensive.

So what can we expect in the next few races? For sure, the current stretch are the ones that suit Hamilton best. His goal should be to consolidate his points lead prior to the latter portion of races that suit Ferrari. The critical events will be the French, British, and German GPs.

For Ferrari, perhaps this is their bogey race. Raikkonen built up a championship lead and after a disastrous race, he is still sitting in a strong position for the championship. Massa still took 6 points from Monaco and remains the hottest driver in the series. If he has a strong race in Canada, perhaps he could take over the points lead.

BMW Sauber is now slipping away from the leading two teams. Robert Kubica is fighting hard, but the team needs to respond and prove they have what it takes to be a top team. Chances to compete at the top do not come often. The season has come alive and BMW Sauber can be part of the mix if they can mange to improve they way BMW motorsport director Mario Theissen suggests they can.

So it is late on the night before this year’s Indianapolis 500, and there is something about the race that continues to stick in my mind. I have been following the development of Graham Rahal as a “500″ contender and continue to be impressed.

Yes, he’s young. Yes, he’s inexperienced. And yes, the Ganassi, Penske, and Andretti Green drivers are several MPH ahead in top speed. However, in some ways, there is a similar vibe that was felt when Marco Andretti was a rookie and very nearly won the race on his first try. Rahal is driving with the type of confident exuberance that only comes with inexperience, in similar fashion to the aforementioned Andretti at Indy as well as Lewis Hamilton in F1 last season.

Realistically, Scott Dixon is the big favorite for tomorrow. Sam is gone. Dario is gone. The two thorns in Dixon’s side are now in NASCAR, and Dixon has really been in a class of his own this season–at least on ovals. Not only is he the fastest, but he is also the most consistent. I doubt anyone really considers Rahal’s chances for victory this year. But then again, Indy has a way of turning predictions upside down.

Taking away all the side stories of unification, the Danica factor, and the strange, overwhelming presence of second and third generation drivers, this year’s Indy has so far been pretty predictable. Dixon is on pole and the team cars are set in order: Ganassi, Penske, Andretti Green, then the rest. In the last three years, the eventual series champion has won at Indy. The time is right for an oddball Indy result, an unexpected winner needs to come from further back in the field. If only to keep things interesting for myself, I’ll go out on a limb and predict that the rookie driver from Dublin, Ohio will win the 92nd Indianapolis 500.

Would Anyone Know?
Is it possible that this is the first Indy 500 in which all the cars are of the same configuration (Dallara/Honda/Firestone) and line up in actual order according to qualifying speeds? If this is a sign of the times, I’m not sure it is a good thing.

Another Bold Prediction?
In addition to predicting victory for Graham Rahal, I’m also predicting that Bruno Junqueira will factor in to this year’s race. He was in the prime of his career when a big accident in his last Indy 500 essentially took away two years of his career. For 2008, he has hauled his Coyne Racing-prepared machine from out in the wilderness in terms of setup up to a consistently fast, 2nd tier contender. Indy owes Junqueira, and this cannot truly be said for many drivers. It is time for the Speedway to give back some of what it has taken away from “Junky.”

During this week came rumblings that Renault is not only disappointed in its rookie driver, Nelson Piquet, but the team may consider some sort of driver shootout for the seat in the offseason. Does anyone remember in the 2008 offseason that Nelson himself and many experts predicted a close battle between the Renault drivers for this season That prediction was way off the mark. Regardless, if Renault were to give up on young Nelson now, what does this say about the team’s in-house driver development? Heikki Kovalainen was kicked out after ‘07 without much consideration, and now Piquet’s status is on shaky ground.

The rumors were that Kovi was too fast to be a 2nd driver to the returning Fernando Alonso. If this is true, and now the team got what it want in terms of a clear driver pecking order, what exactly does the team expect from Piquet? He must go faster, just not too fast? Unless Renault chooses a true ace for its second seat, it will continue to feature drivers who fall short of expectations in a very self-fulfilling way.

Looking to next year, the best candidate for a potential open race seat is Sebastien Bourdais. Not only would he be a French driver on a French team, but he would also be a good fit in many ways. His development and testing skills are formidable. The racecraft he demonstrated in Champ Car is from the top drawer. And as an older driver who is new to F1, he brings a maturity that should help to avoid the emotionally-driven driver pairing failures that we have seen in these 20-something lineups of recent memory.

With the future of Toro Rosso in the air, it is likely the team would not stand in the way of Bourdais moving on to greener pastures. For Renault, he will not be an expensive driver compared to established stars, but his immediate upside is very high. And if Alonso were to flee to Ferrari or BMW as some suggest, then Renault can benefit from Bourdais’s proven abilities to lead a team and win races. If Renault truly cares about returning to the top of the F1 world, then it must at least give serious consideration to making a run for the services of one Sebastien Bourdais.

Grand Prix DB provides each driver’s statistical rating prior to the start of the race. A rating of 1.00 is the highest possible score. Here are the Grand Prix DB Power Ratings for the Monaco GP:

Felipe Massa, 0.94
Kimi Raikkonen, 0.93
Robert Kubica, 0.83
Lewis Hamilton, 0.83
Nick Heidfeld, 0.75
Heikki Kovalainen, 0.70
Nico Rosberg, 0.68
Fernando Alonso, 0.67
Jarno Trulli, 0.66
Mark Webber, 0.56
David Coulthard, 0.51
Kazuki Nakajima, 0.48
Timo Glock, 0.47
Rubens Barrichello, 0.44
Jenson Button, 0.40
Nelson Piquet Jr, 0.32
Sebastien Bourdais, 0.31
Giancarlo Fisichella, 0.31
Adrian Sutil, 0.21
Sebastian Vettel, 0.19

It is clear that Massa has the momentum by winning pole on what might be his weakest track. If he were to win tomorrow, as a vast majority of victors at Monaco have done from pole, not only would he continue to slice away at Raikkonen’s points lead, but he would also have the most wins on the season. After the first two events of 2008, many questioned Massa’s ability to cope with the loss of driver aids. Now there cannot be any doubt that the Ferrari driver has made the necessary adjustments and is now on equal footing with his teammate.

For Raikkonen, 7 points is still a workable lead in the championship, but he soon must assert himself to rise above the status quo. If there ever were another season in which the winner at Monte Carlo were to not come from pole, this would be a good year for the reigning World Champion. However, not only is he starting on the dirty side of the track, but he also has two very ambitious drivers thirsting for victory on the 1st and 3rd grid positions. The start is going to be very pressure-packed and very important for Raikkonen.

Hamilton has a clear goal—try to beat one or both Ferrari drivers at the start. More than likely, the McLaren cars are on a heavy to neutral fuel load. Perhaps Massa and Raikkonen are light? If Hamilton wants to win, he cannot let the Ferraris get away. However, during his F1 career, Hamilton has suffered from incidents early in several races. Monaco is one race where the odds are high it can happen again if he takes one too many chances.

For Kovalainen, his goal should overwhelmingly be to drive a clean race and get to the checkered flag. He cannot let his season continue to fall apart. We know he can be fast, but can he also avoid incidents?

Kubica seems to be the most likely to benefit from others’ misfortunes. He is deceptively fast on tight circuits this year, and at Monaco is seemingly the fastest (along with Button) in mixed conditions, which we may very well see on Sunday.

Finally, Rosberg is this year’s darkhorse at Monaco. It is in his bloodline to win in Monte Carlo. For spectators, it should be a great race tomorrow.

The Turkish GP could go down as the race that Lewis Hamilton finally arrived on the F1 scene. Yes, there are all the statistical records from last year, but it was only until this race, that we finally witnessed Hamilton fighting for every last position the way we used to see Michael Schumacher, Ayrton Senna, and great ones before them do it.

Credit tire supplier Bridgestone for actually being the ones to determine Hamilton’s race strategy. Finally, for once in the last 21 races, McLaren tried something dramatically different in their race strategy. And even if the origins were not from the team itself, what unfolded was an ideal situation for Hamilton to push to the maximum and build confidence with each lap.

Just like the last two seasons, the stage is set for a pivotal battle to be waged on the streets on Monaco. Remember in 2006, Schumacher’s spin in Q3 led to no win in the race and a big swing in momentum to eventual champion, Fernando Alonso. in 2007, the first deep fissures in the Alonso-Hamilton pairing at McLaren came to the surface after many Hamilton supporters accused Ron Dennis of denying Hamilton a shot at victory. The rift between the two drivers contributed greatly to the door being swum wide open for Kimi Raikkonen to take advantage and win the championship in dramatic fashion.

For 2008, we have four drivers at a crossroads. Despite a dominating performance by championship leader Raikkonen in Spain, he has actually been outperformed by teammate Felipe Massa recently. The Brazilian has won two of the last three races to put himself firmly back into championship contention. Meanwhile, Robert Kubica is out to prove that BMW Sauber is not a flash in the pan. (Against the words of Ron Dennis and Grand Prix DB.) And of course, Hamilton will be fighting for the victory he felt was wrongfully denied to him last year. Barring unforeseen DNFs the podium winners should be no surprise and will be comprised of three of these four drivers.

Yet, the driver who stands at the top step of the podium in Monaco will no doubt carry an incredible amount of momentum through Canada and the European races. It can certainly prove to be a championship swing. As I mentioned earlier in the season, Raikkonen has been performing at an extremely high level over the last 10+ races as evidenced more by his ability to minimize losses than his actual win total. (Although the wins do help, don’t they?). Like Spain, Monaco was an event last year that did not go very well for the Finn. And like Spain, Raikkonen won in Monaco in ‘05. Do not underestimate history repeating itself for Raikkonen. Already, he has two dominant wins in ‘08, and he will probably have four or five more before it is all over. Monaco can be one of them.

For Hamilton, the pressure will really be on. He has made it clear he was denied last year and wants to win this year. He is also coming off a renaissance, when many, including myself, were writing off McLaren’s chances prior to the Turkish GP. This is a critical race for Hamilton and McLaren to prove they have momentum on their side. Will they respond better than they did in the second half of ‘07? We shall see.

Massa and Kubica will be looking to improve on their finishes from last year (3rd and 5th, respectively) and take their ‘08 campaigns to the next level.

Remember in the early 2000’s when it was fashionable for drivers and the press to slam the Monaco GP, arguing that the modern F1 machine had outgrown the tight street course in the Principality? I don’t think any of these detractors would have predicted how pivotal a race this has become. This coming weekend truly promises to be a “battle royal.”

After finishing 2nd at the Turkish GP, Lewis Hamilton stated in an Autosport news report, “My predicted race finish was fifth.” It just so happens that Grand Prix DB had the same prediction in its Turkish GP Pre-race Power Ratings.

And congratulations to Hamilton for an excellent drive, one he described as perhaps his best race ever. It was amazing to watch.

Grand Prix DB will post its notes of the race later in the week.

Grand Prix DB provides each driver’s statistical rating prior to the start of the race. A rating of 1.00 is the highest possible score. Here are the Grand Prix DB Power Ratings for the Turkish GP:

1. Kimi Raikkonen, 0.93
2. Felipe Massa, 0.91
3. Robert Kubica, 0.83
4. Nick Heidfeld, 0.77
5. Lewis Hamilton, 0.71
6. Heikki Kovalainen, 0.67
7. Fernando Alonso, 0.65
8. Jarno Trulli, 0.64
9. Nico Rosberg, 0.59
10. Mark Webber, 0.56
11. David Coulthard, 0.52
12. Kazuki Nakajima, 0.50
13. Rubens Barrichello, 0.45
14. Timo Glock, 0.44
15. Jenson Button, 0.43
16. Giancarlo Fisichella, 0.40
17. Nelson Piquet Jr, 0.31
18. Sebastien Bourdais, 0.31
19. Sebastian Vettel, 0.27
20. Adrian Sutil, 0.18

Massa is certainly on a roll for the Turkish GP. As a Ferrari driver so far, he is 100 percent for poles and victories. And his performance record ranks him virtually equal with Raikkonen on power rating. But Raikkonen’s consistency and high finishes over the course of the season still gives him a slight nod even though he only qualified fourth. And what does Grand Prix DB have to say about rating the BMW Sauber drivers ahead of McLaren’s? Let’s just say that as a team, McLaren have made more mistakes than BMW Sauber. And until they can prove they have overcome this trend, chances are that Kubica and Heidfeld will benefit again from some sort of McLaren failure this weekend. Finally, look out for Mark Webber to continue a steady rise in rating as he recovers from a poor early season performance.

The most important note of the day is that it appears Heikki Kovalainen is pretty much OK and will likely return for the next round in Turkey.

Nick Heidfeld seems to be the bellwether this year for change. First, he was at the center of the Q3 slow down lap controversy in Malaysia that saw the McLaren drivers penalized. Afterwards the slow down lap maximum time regulation was quickly adopted. On Sunday, Heidfeld’s lottery number came up during the safety car closed pit period. He either had to pit and suffer a 10-second pit-in penalty or simply stop on the track out of fuel. Either decision would be catastrophic to his and BMW Sauber’s race efforts. The team chose the former. Clearly, the rule needs to change. While it is in place to lessen the chaos then ensues following a serious incident on the track, the current rule is not working from a sporting standpoint. However, just what change to make is unclear.

Logically, any penalty should be imposed immediately during the pit stop in question. The technology is already in place to immediately enforce such a penalty. Simply hold the car in the pits for a specified time after the crew finishes its work. This type of penalty is enough to discourage teams from gaining an unfair advantage while it also serves to mitigate the consequences to a driver, like Heidfeld, who had no choice but to pit.

The race itself held much promise but several DNFs robbed us of seeing how the podium finishers and point scorers would sort themselves out. I was surprised about how many DNFs there were given that this was not a flyaway race. However, as long as Kimi Raikkonen drives the way we all know he can and Ferrari maintains the reliability we have all come to expect, things look really good for the reigning World Champion.

McLaren put on a brave face and suggested they really can take the fight to Ferrari. Yet, even with the safety car periods, they did not look like contenders compared to Ferrari’s pace. Imagine the gap if the race went green flag to flag.

Finally, we have not witnessed as bad a start to the season for a hyped driver as that of Sebastian Vettel. The only other driver I can remember having so many first lap DNFs is Michael Andretti in ‘93. Let’s hope this string of bad luck doesn’t ruin young Vettel’s career.