Grand Prix DB provides each driver’s statistical rating prior to the start of the race. A rating of 1.00 is the highest possible score. Here are the Grand Prix DB Power Ratings for the German GP:

Felipe Massa, 0.87
Lewis Hamilton, 0.81
Robert Kubica, 0.80
Kimi Raikkonen, 0.77
Jarno Trulli, 0.71
Mark Webber, 0.71
Nick Heidfeld, 0.68
Heikki Kovalainen, 0.67
Fernando Alonso, 0.62
Timo Glock, 0.56
Rubens Barrichello, 0.54
David Coulthard, 0.52
Nico Rosberg, 0.49
Kazuki Nakajima, 0.48
Jenson Button, 0.48
Sebastian Vettel, 0.45
Nelson Piquet Jr, 0.34
Sebastien Bourdais, 0.31
Giancarlo Fisichella, 0.29
Adrian Sutil, 0.21

In a season full of flaws for the leading championship contenders, the stage is set for a showdown between Hamilton and Massa as they not only share the front row, but they also seem equally matched in terms of pace. Both drivers are at their best when leading a race from when the lights go out. And both drivers have made their share of mistakes when they did not have the fastest car. So something has to give tomorrow.

Ferrari is generally has a slight edge when it comes to being consistently fast in race trim. But pit wall decisions by the team have not been the best as evidenced but the team’s inability to react to changing conditions in Britain. If the race is run in the dry, the advantage has to go to Ferrari and Massa. But if there is even a hind of variability in the weather, Hamilton has been untouchable when the intermediate tires go on.

Raikkonen’s dip in performance of late has been the result of some bad luck and team mistakes. But this weekend, he has simply been overshadowed by his teammate. How he will react tomorrow remains to be seen. While he is struggling with the set up, it appears that changes the team made for qualifying did not lead to the desired results, and they may in fact have something to fall back on by reverting to an earlier set up.

As for BMW Sauber, it time for me to dismiss them again, which of course will lead to a surprising result! Seriously, it is looking more and more like Montreal will ultimately be the high point of the season for the team as they have been steadily losing pace to their rivals as a result of their inability to continue developing the car. Soon, we won’t even need to dsicuss their prospects prior to the race.

Finally, if Renault and Alonso can ever back up their qualifying results with competitive pace on race day, there is definitely a potential podium in play for the Spaniard. However, until they prove otherwise, expect Alonso to run strongly on the first stint and then steadily drop down the standings as the race progesses.

After last week’s British GP, it is possible that Lewis Hamilton and McLaren will hope that all the remaining races in the 2008 season are run in the rain. Three of Hamilton’s seven career F1 victories have come when the race started under wet conditions. To say that the win at Silverstone was his best is a legitimate assertion and it is notable that three of the best wins for Hamilton have come in 2008.

In nearly an equal opposite, Ferrari’s worst races have come in the same events that Hamilton has won. And in these three races, Kimi Raikkonen and Felipe Massa have both scored only 6 points each. The gap between the relative team results of Ferrari and McLaren in wet and/or mixed conditions is dramatic.

However, the reality is that there will not be very many wet races left in 2008. There is always a chance that rain may feature in the Asian and Brazilian events, but certainly not in all four. And despite their ups and downs, Ferrari is showing to be the fastest car of the field in race trim.

As the 2008 F1 season has reached the halfway point, we are actually right back where we started. No one is leading the championship, with Hamiton, Massa, and Raikkonen equal on points and Robert Kubica only two points down. And at the top, the only thing separating Hamilton and Massa is the McLaren driver’s 10th place finish in France compared to the Ferrari driver’s 2nd retirement of the season in Malaysia. It seems you cannot get any closer that this.

However, this season has not been characterized by maximum results at each race. The deciding factor in 2008 has been seeing who has made the fewest mistakes. And again, I contend the advantage goes to Ferrari for the balance of the season since most of their gaffes have come in rainy conditions, the type of conditions of which we may not see again in the remaining nine races.

Amazingly, Kubica is only two points out of the championship lead after two dreadful events following his maiden win in Canada. For sure, Kubica lost a potential big points haul as he aquaplaned off the track in Britian. But the last time we have seen a team so unable to support such a strong championship contender was the last time a BMW-powered car was in contention: Juan Montoya in 2003. While the team can claim glory in Nick Heidfeld’s strong weekend and 2nd place in Britain, they are seeing the bigger prize slip away. In sports, you never know when the chance to win a championship will come your way, and you should never take the opportunity for granted. BMW Sauber may regard themselves as the team of the future, but with so many technical changes coming in 2009, nothing is guaranteed. They must respond now, or they may end up regretting it for seasons to come.

Grand Prix DB provides each driver’s statistical rating prior to the start of the race. A rating of 1.00 is the highest possible score. Here are the Grand Prix DB Power Ratings for the British GP:

Felipe Massa, 0.90
Robert Kubica, 0.86
Kimi Raikkonen, 0.80
Mark Webber, 0.77
Lewis Hamilton, 0.71
Nick Heidfeld, 0.71
Heikki Kovalainen, 0.68
Jarno Trulli, 0.66
Fernando Alonso, 0.58
Timo Glock, 0.58
David Coulthard, 0.52
Rubens Barrichello, 0.50
Nico Rosberg, 0.46
Kazuki Nakajima, 0.45
Sebastian Vettel, 0.44
Jenson Button, 0.42
Nelson Piquet Jr, 0.38
Giancarlo Fisichella, 0.32
Sebastien Bourdais, 0.30
Adrian Sutil, 0.20

Since 2008 is turning out to be a season of firsts, and it would be great for the series if Heikki Kovalainen can convert his first-ever F1 pole position into his first F1 win. He certainly looked dominant in qualifying. In recent races, McLaren have been running Kovalainen on heavy fuel loads due to various circumstances. Perhaps this weekend, they are trying a different strategy in hopes of the Finn avoiding getting stuck in traffic. This year’s British GP could have similarities to the 2005 event, when McLaren’s then 2nd driver, Juan Montoya, had a poor start to the season, but then broke through with a dominant win in Britain.

The rest of the field is set up for potentially wild action. Mark Webber during his career has not been particularly successful at converting a front-row start with a podium finish. Some day, that trend will change. Nevertheless, he has a reputation of being hard to pass and with Hamilton on the second row next to Raikkonen, the time is ripe for some kind of incident happening early in the race among the top 4 starters.

BMW Sauber continues to show a remarkable inability to respond to the opportunity to fight it out as a top team. First, the team put in a dismal performance in France as team management ignored its championship-leading driver’s input in testing prior to the French GP. Upgrades were installed to the car against Robert Kubica’s wishes, and the changes backfired on race weekend. Today, a technical problem all but ruined Kubica’s Q3 performance, and now the team has to devise a strategy to maximize his points take tomorrow. I can’t help but find parallels between 2008 and the 2003 season, when the BMW-powered Williams of Juan Montoya (second mention in this post) saw a significant drop in performance after Montoya emerged as a leading championship contender well into the season. If Raikkonen plans to retire after 2009, Kubica may be all but gone from the German squad. The team has not shifted their focus on maintaining or improving Kubica’s position in the championship in favor of the “team” results, and the overall team effort has suffered. A small consolation can be found in Nick Heidfeld’s fifth qualifying spot. But the team had a chance to become a big-time player at the front of the grid, and they appear to be letting the opportunity slip away.

Finally, whatever really happened to Felipe Massa, the current championship-leader now has a chance to show the world they he has learned from the master himself, Michael Schumacher. More often then not, Schumi was able to overcome a poor starting position into a great race result with a combination of top-notch driving, strategy, and a dose of patience in the early laps. Massa has progressed so much this season and starting ninth is more of an opportunity for the Brazilian than a burden.

When was the last time we saw Felipe Massa “luck” into a win? Prior to the French GP we never have. And what everybody witnessed last weekend was the final transformation from an ambitious, somewhat wild prospect into a legitimate championship contender. While the young Brazilian had his moments in 2006 and 2007, he has never been so convincingly on top of his game as he has been from Bahrain 2008 onwards.

Massa’s transformation is something that Lewis Hamilton needs to learn from. For while Massa kept his emotions and faculties intact in Canada following a refueling mishap and in France where his teammate was faster in a healthy car, Hamilton imploded from the weight of his and his team’s own ambitions, outrageous public statements, and lack of attention to details.

Now that Massa is leading the championship it will be interesting to see if he can raise the level of his driving to the next level. After all, Kimi Raikkonen looked awfully strong in France until his exhaust pipe broke. If the championship turns into a two-way battle between the Ferrari teammates don’t expect to see the same type of self-destructive rivalry that haunted McLaren last year. Both Ferrari drivers appear to possess not only the self-confidence but also the discipline to avoid having the team suffer at the expense of personal gain.

For Hamilton and his McLaren team, there is no shortage of people willing to provide their advice on what needs to be done to turn around the team and driver’s fortunes. Basically, the task is clear. Hamilton needs to let his driving do the talking and the team needs to properly manage the program during race weekends. The fact that on balance it seems that they will bounce right back on track at the British GP speaks volumes about the capabilities of Hamilton and McLaren. But the trends suggest that it will be more difficult than everyone thinks.

The fact is, McLaren as a whole have committed a lot of unnecessary mistakes this season, certainly more than their fair share. But unforced errors are not something that even out over the course of a season. These types of failures are symptomatic of deeper problems within the team itself. And preventing them from happening in the future usually requires systematic changes within the organization. What this means for Hamilton is that I do not see him winning the championship in 2008. Does he have a chance? Absolutely. Will he succeed? Even with 10 races left, I can say with confidence that he will not.