GrandPrixDB sides with the FIA in handing out a 10-spot grid penalty in the upcoming Malaysian GP to Sebastian Vettel for his role in the late race incident with Robert Kubica at the 2009 Australian GP. You can read our analysis here.

Although many observers disagree with the ruling, Vettel could have, and should have, avoided the incident. The fact is that the dramatic speed discrepancy between the two cars was due to Vettel’s tires going off and Kubica’s natural pace at the time. Kubica did not use any artificial means to gain speed such as cutting a chicane or otherwise using a non-racing part of the circuit. By simply braking a meter earlier, Vettel could have avoided the entire mess.

Ultimately, Vettel was not fighting for position because in reality he had no means in which to fight off Kubica. And he knew it. His tires were completely spent and there were too many laps left in the race (three). As I mentioned in my previous post, the only way Vettel could prevent Kubica from passing would be to take him out.

However, I disagree with Eddie Jordan’s assertion that Vettel apologizing to Mario Thiesson afterwards is a sign of weakness. The racing world has become accustomed to the Michael Shumachers and Lewis Hamiltons, who act with impunity and see no reason to offer a simple apology for an admitted mistake in the heat of battle. The fact is Vettel has an irrepressible spirit and we all know he will come back with maximum effort in Malaysia and beyond.

You’re wrong Eddie. Vettel’s ability to admit a mistake and take responsibility in a mature manner is more a sign of strength than weakness. Vettel showed his class and true self confidence in this act of pure sportsmanship.

Sebastian Vettel is a brilliant driver. Even at just 21 years of age he clearly has what it takes to one day become World Champion. However, his incident in the closing stages of the 2009 Australian GP with Robert Kubica as both were fighting for second place was ultimately Vettel’s doing.

Yes, technically speaking both drivers were at fault. Kubica could have waited to make a later pass, or given Vettel more room in the corner. Vettel could have, and should have, given up the corner.

The speed differential was completely due to the tire situation. Vettel was on the softer compound and his tires were through with their golden laps. He was a sitting duck. Kubica ran the ideal strategy by qualifying light and running the soft tires in a short first stint. This allowed him to run the medium compound tires in the critical last stint and he was clearly faster by this point.

From the perspective of Vettel, when a driver has a car that is so many kilometers per hour slower than a passing car, the right thing to do is give up the corner to the faster car. There were still three laps to go and the only way the slower Vettel could prevent Kubica from eventually overtaking was to take him out.

The situation would have been different had they been on the last lap. Then it is every driver for themselves. However in this case, there were three laps remaining and Kubica was going to make every effort to take the fight to race leader, Jenson Button. Even if things had worked out with Vettel, chances are that Kubica would not have caught Button. But recognize this. When the soft compound tires went off, they went off in a big way to the tune of 3-6 seconds per lap. It was not inconceivable that Button’s tires may have gone off and Kubica, who was the fastest of the leading cars at the time, could have had a last second attempt to snatch the race lead. The key was to get by Vettel as quickly as possible, which meant taking the chance as soon as the opportunity presented itself.

For Vettel the end result is a DNF and no points. Judging by the way his race went up to the point of the accident, these lost points might be very critical at the end of the year. Although he was no match for Button, he was not too far away either. Vettel was the class of the “best of the rest” behind the Brawn GP cars. Clearly, Adrian Newey has designed a very good chassis, and it is reasonable to expect the Red Bull to get even better as the year goes on. A Championship push would not be out of the question. As we have seen in the last two seasons, every single point is valuable. And if Vettel finds that he is a handful of points short in the end… I guess we can all say, “What if?”

For Kubica his move was, in vernacular terms, all about street cred. He was clearly committed to closing out the race with every last nanosecond of pace left in his car. And any sliver of opportunity to take an upset victory over the Brawn cars (how ironic is that statement!) was not going to be given up without a fight. Both he and Vettel had equal amounts to lose. Now Vettel and everyone else will know that in similar circumstances, they will either need to be willing to take a DNF or simply give up on a losing battle.

Foolish you might say? Well consider what happened last year in the Japanese GP when Sebastien Bourdais on pit exit failed to give up a corner to the flying Felipe Massa. It was Bourdais who ended up getting penalized. The precedent set by the FIA is that in battles for position, if one car is clearly faster than the other at the point of contact, any resulting penalties will be given to the slower car.

Grand Prix DB provides each driver’s statistical rating prior to the start of the race. It is a moving numerical ranking of possible long run future success. The highest ranked driver does not necessarily have the best chance to win the upcoming race, but is in the strongest position to have the best overall results over the long term. As a driver experiences more success over a series of events, their rating increases, and vice versa. A rating of 1.00 is the highest possible score.

Here are the Grand Prix DB Power Ratings prior to the 2009 Australian GP:

1. Sebastian Vettel, 0.84
2. Robert Kubica, 0.82
3. Felipe Massa, 0.79
4. Kimi Raikkonen, 0.76
5. Jenson Button, 0.74
6. Rubens Barrichello, 0.74
7. Fernando Alonso, 0.69
8. Timo Glock, 0.68
9. Nico Rosberg, 0.67
10. Jarno Trulli, 0.63
11. Nick Heidfeld, 0.60
12. Mark Webber, 0.58
13. Lewis Hamilton, 0.54
14. Nelson Piquet Jr, 0.43
15. Kazuki Nakajima, 0.42
16. Heikki Kovalainen, 0.41
17. Sebastien Buemi, 0.33
18. Sebastien Bourdais, 0.31
19. Giancarlo Fisichella, 0.25
20. Adrian Sutil, 0.20

The amazing Brawn GP are taking full advantage of their technical superiority at the moment by having its two drivers lock out the front row. With a healthy gap to the rest of the field, many are predicting a runaway by Button and Barrichello. But things are never so easy in racing and the Brawn drivers certainly will have their hardest work of the weekend ahead of them in tomorrow’s race.

Red Bull’s Vettel continues to amaze with his ability to put it all together for qualifying. Despite limited practice due to technical problems and driver error on Vettel’s part, he was still able to put in a lightening lap to take third on the grid. And as he proved in the second half of ‘08, Vettel’s qualifying pace proves to be no fluke in the race itself. However, as we all saw in practice, reliability could be a major issue for Red Bull on Sunday.

BMW Sauber’s Kubica, the most consistent driver of ‘08, is once again poised to pounce if any of the top three cars falter. With three upstarts ahead of him on the starting grid and the expected season points contenders a nice gap behind, it will be interesting to see how Kubica approaches the early part of the race. I believe all things taken together, BMW Sauber is the best prepared team for ‘09, so I do not see them wasting a chance for a valuable points haul with a glory run for the front on the opening laps. And it is certain that they will be expecting a podium finish tomorrow.

The Ferraris actually looked pretty good on the track and their lack of ultimate pace is a bit surprising. It will be an interesting battle to see if the KERS-equipped Ferrari drivers can overcome the “diffuser” teams of Toyota and Williams who are not running KERS.

As we wait to see the weights of the cars for race published, comes the news that McLaren will change the gearbox on Hamilton’s car and he will start last on the grid. If there were ever a time for a driver to live up to his team’s hype…

It is refreshing to see Williams and Toyota, along with Brawn fighting at the front with legitimate pace. The early flyaway races can distort reality in comparison to the usual form taking hold when the European races come around. Yet, the ‘09 Australian GP takes unpredicability to a new level and we are guaranteed to see more surprises in tomorrow’s race.

We’re just a few hours away from the first free practice session of the 2009 F1 season. With sweeping rules changes introduced for this year, it is very hard to predict which driver or team will come out on top. Furthermore, offseason testing created more questions than answers with the new Brawn GP team (nee Honda, nee BAR, nee Tyrrell) setting the pace while McLaren were uncharacteristically near the bottom of the time sheets.

We’ve seen many sites providing previews and assessments of the upcoming season, but no one seems foolish enough to actually rank the contenders. That’s where GrandPrixDB comes in. After all, we have no advertisers to answer to and no subscribers to entice to pay us. Basically how much Web traffic we generate has no bearing on whether or not we can put food on the table. So what follows is our predictions for the top 6 drivers in this year’s championship. And when the inaugural Abu Dhabi Grand Prix comes around November 1st, we can either have a good laugh or toast our cleverness.

#6: Lewis Hamilton – Despite McLaren’s struggles in preseason testing, it will be mistake to write off the defending champion. However, his team’s inability to roll off the trailer in testing with a car that adequately manages oversteer means that Hamilton begins the season at a disadvantage to his rivals. Depending on how many races it takes for McLaren to recover, Hamilton may not be able to make up lost points from the opening rounds of the Championship.

#5 Jenson Button – Based strictly on two weeks of testing and the fact that the brilliant Ross Brawn is in charge of the entire operation, it seems that at least one of the team’s cars will be able to consistently run at the front and score points regularly. Nevertheless, it is never easy to build a race-winning organization, let alone overcome the lack of testing miles and high off-season drama that Brawn GP has dealt with just to make it to the grid. When the car is good, Button is at his absolute best. So we expect him to shine in 2009 and score a lot of points. But the team will experience growing pains and little mistakes here and there will mean that Button won’t enjoy the consistency throughout the season to be Champion.

#4: Felipe Massa – Ferrari have been near the front in testing and they have two very competitive drivers. They will win their share of races. But there have been nagging reliability issues that bring into question how many races the team’s cars will be able to finish this season. Certainly, when unreliability rears its ugly head, Kimi Raikkonen seems to suffer the worst. Massa has upped the technical side of his game during his tenure at Ferrari, and this added piece in his arsenal may enable him to deal with less than ideal conditions better than his teammate.

#3: Nick Heidfeld – Written off by many after being thoroughly thrashed by teammate Robert Kubica last year, there are many signs pointing to a big year for the super smooth German driver. He is still quick and perhaps the smoothest driver in F1. We believe smoothness will be utterly important this year as the 2009 cars have much more tendency towards oversteer and subsequent wearing of the rear tires than any in recent memory. Additionally, his active record of 28 straight classified finishes suggests an incredibly sympathetic touch and consistency in a variety of circumstances. His relatively small stature should also allow better ballasting of his chassis when integrating the 35kg KERS system compared to teammate Kubica. Perhaps Heidfeld will be able to run KERS for every race this season. Heidfeld showed the world just how quick he is in 2007, and with BMW Sauber continuing its upward progress, Heidfeld should return to the front of the grid and be in the Championship hunt for the entire season.

#2 Fernando Alonso – The Spanish driver proved he is the best in the business last year by playing a pivotal role in improving the dreadful Renault R28 from low mid-packer to race winner by the end of the season. The new R29 is pure ugly, but it has been reliable and reasonably quick in testing. Factor in the intangibles that Alonso, the two-time Champion, brings to the table combined with the ability of his Renault team to rise to occasion, and you have a legitimate contender. The only factor that will prevent Alonso from adding a third Championship will be the ultimate pace of the R29.

#1 Robert Kubica – Our pick for 2009 World Champion is Robert Kubica. In 2008, he combined his incredible natural pace with race savvy, reliability, and consistency. There is no underestimating Dr. Mario Theissen’s deliberate hand in building BMW Sauber into a championship-winning team. Testing proceeded in a very typical and undramatic manner for the team. While they were not the pacesetters, they experienced few if any reliability problems, and seemingly few if any problems in understanding how to tune the chassis. They had no reason to show off their pace in testing and this weekend, they will unleash their true pace. The team’s steady improvement over the past three seasons is right in line with how other teams throughout history have evolved into the top teams of their generation. In comparing the two BMW Sauber drivers, Kubica has proven to be quicker, and in 2008, he became a race winner. This edge will be the difference in vaulting Kubica to the Championship.

There you have it. It’s time to go racing in Melbourne and we look forward to a great 2009.