Although it is premature to editorialize based on speculation, the newswires were alight today with reports that Honda is preparing to exit F1 either by selling its team or shutting down the operation entirely. If the reports are true, it really should not come as a complete surprise. Unlike the USA automakers, Honda is probably not planning on a government bailout or bankruptcy as part of its strategic plan. The global economy is in shambles, and automakers across the world are experiencing considerable sales declines.

When Max Mosley started down the path of the standardized engine for F1, just about everyone saw this as being yet another Mad Max Meltdown. How dare Mosley commit blasphemy on our sacred sport by trying to turn it into a glorified version of IndyCar! Yet, there was little thought given to the possibility that this proposal might actually have some basis in reality.

I doubt that Honda is making a political power play in response to a possible spec engine. If they are truly considering leaving F1, the overriding reason is financial. As we have seen with mortgage companies, financial institutions, and the automotive industry, no business is immune from a recession. Smart companies will plan ahead so that the organization can survive now and be set to thrive in the future when the market improves. Manufacturer participation in racing is mostly an elective activity and is always one of the first areas to face massive budget cuts when times are really tough.

Prior to the turbo era of the ’80s and after the rear-engined revolution of the late ‘50 and early ’60s, independent teams flourished in F1. And there were many seasons where the Cosworth V8 powerplant was used by a vast majority of teams. To see virtually the entire F1 field populated by manufacturer-supported teams is a relatively recent occurrence. If all the manufacturers except Ferrari were to leave F1 today, the situation would not be much different from the state of affairs in the mid-’70s. For example, when the 1975 season opened in Argentina, of the 23 cars that qualified, 20 of them were powered by the same engine, the legendary Cosworth DFV.

I am firmly against Max Mosley and the FIA ramming a spec engine down everyone’s throats. However, I am certainly not against the presence of a common engine in the series. While the term “constructor” in F1 has now become analogous to the word “manufacturer,” the vast history of the sport reveals that constructors build their machines using whatever powerplants are available to them at the time. If this means that tomorrow their choice is limited to an Illmor-built engine, then so be it. Yet, instead of mandating that all teams use a chosen engine, the FIA should let natural selection play itself out. Manufacturers will always come and go as times change. But racers will always be around to compete.

The FIA should support an engine development program because the writing is on the wall. The days of big spending are coming to an end. But that does not mean we throw it all away in the name of cost savings. I am certain that even in the worst-case scenario at least three manufacturers will be present in F1. And these companies should be welcomed with open arms and encouraged to build their own engines. But to keep F1 healthy, there will need to be a freely-available, more affordable way to compete in F1. And this is where the “spec” engine comes into play. I sincerely hope this is the true intention of Mosley’s concept.

With news of Mark Webber’s unfortunate accident last weekend at his own charity cycling event come two concerns. First and foremost is the hope that Webber will fully recover and have no permanent effects from his injuries, which are reported to be a broken leg and other minor injuries.

The second concern is that Webber’s career will be threatened. While the obvious question is whether or not Webber will race again, and all signs right now point to a Yes answer, the most meaningful question is how will Webber’s forced time off play into new teammate Sebastian Vettel’s rise to the top of F1.

To backtrack a bit, many fans of Webber’s understand how bad luck has played a significant role in his F1 career to date. Although he chose to switch teams when he did, Webber’s timing has been dubious as he joined the Williams-BMW team in the exact season that his former Jaguar, soon-to-be-Red Bull, squad was crossing paths with Williams, soon-to-be-without BMW, in the F1 pecking order. The result was two lost years at a team on a downhill slide.

Then there were various races where potentially high finishes were spoiled by mechanical failures or unusual incidents. One of the most notorious was in Japan ‘07 when future teammate Vettel smashed into the back of Webber during a safety car period while both were running in podium positions.

But this latest setback in Webber’s career will have the biggest impact. With Webber on the sidelines, the primary testing focus will now be on Vettel in an offseason where the Adrian Newey-designed chassis is fresh off of capturing its first victory (albeit with a Ferrari engine and presented by junior team, Toro Rosso) and where the engine supplier Renault will certainly be given the opportunity to “equalize” its powerplants with the more powerful lumps from Ferrari, Mercedes, and BMW. Make no mistake, the senior Red Bull operation will not run second fiddle to junior Toro Rosso in ‘09 (now wholly owned by Red Bull, by the way). And for further measure, Toro Rosso management will cement its junior status with its imminent driver pairing announcement.

Newey’s Red Bull creation seems tailor-made for Vettel. It is sensitive towards oversteer but very quick in the right hands. And there is no doubt that Newey and the Red Bull folks want to win big. True, KERS is a huge wildcard along with the new aero regulations. However, for the upcoming season, everything else being equal, I would expect the ‘09 Red Bull to be a fantastic car. And with Vettel behind the wheel, we could see the type of jump in performance from ‘08 to ‘09 for Red Bull as we saw in ‘93 to ‘94 for Benetton with its rising German driver of the day.

Vettel is amazingly mature for his age and relative inexperience. I use the term “relative” because he has actually been directly involved in F1 since mid-2006. And watching the young German come alive on Saturdays and Sundays of race weekends erases any doubts that he has enough skills in setting up the car to consistently run competitively.

So as Webber works hard to recover in time for a short bit a testing prior to the season-opening Australian GP, his new teammate will be pounding around at the next test in Jerez and when the new car debuts in Feruary mapping his brain to the nuances of the senior team car and how he can extract maximum pace out of it.

The opening event of 2009 should be an exciting one for Red Bull. The team will have its best-ever driver pairing and most competitive car yet. During his career, Webber has always had an edge over his teammate (although his brief pairing with Nick Heidfeld was a close call). But now, facing his stiffest competition yet, he literally begins the quest on one leg. In what should be the strongest season of his F1 career, I predict Webber will for the first time nevertheless be playing second fiddle to his teammate.

With momentum gaining for Scuderia Toro Rosso to hire two newcomers to the organization, Sebastien Buemi and Takuma Sato, the staff of Grand Prix DB would like to make a case for the team to instead retain Sebastien Bourdais.

Buemi will likely get the “first” seat at STR. And the reason why Bourdais should be in the “second” seat at STR for 2009 is that successful teams recognize the importance of stability. Yes, maybe Sato could out-point Bourdais over the course of a full season. Maybe. But he will first have to learn the nuances of the chassis, integrate with the team, and develop a rapport with his engineer. Typically this takes time.

With Buemi and Sato how is the team better off with a rookie and a team newcomer? In his F1 past, Sato has not shown himself to be a character who can instantly integrate into the team and move it forward, like Michael Schumacher or Fernando Alonso. Sure Sato has skills, but so does Bourdais. Perhaps they can be seen as equal on talent. But with Bourdais, the team already has baseline data and a working relationship, and they should be able to move forward from the get-go.

There are exceptions to the wholesale driver change rule. McLaren did pretty well in ‘07 with two new drivers. However, one was a two-time World Champion and the other was a long-term driver in the team’s development program (Alonso and Lewis Hamilton). Williams had success in ‘03. However one driver was a three-time World Champion and the other was an established test driver in the organization (Alain Prost and Damon Hill). None of these qualifications apply to Sato.

It seems STR management is taking their success in ‘08 for granted. They don’t appear to realize that most if not all of their success was due to the brilliant driving of Sebastian Vettel—not because of genius acts on management’s part. Vettel is a rare talent who is nearly impossible to replace. Bourdais did a solid job as a rookie and has obvious potential after spending a year with the team. STR is short of resources but continuing on its current path will help them more than a ride buyer would. Instead, team management is acting with impunity when it comes to driver selection.

When team managers think too highly of themselves, they usually end up ignoring the contributions of the incumbent driver and decide to make wholesale driver changes. More often than not, the result is that the team finds itself in a clear downward trend by midseason because they have had to spend precious resources on getting to know its drivers rather than developing the car.

The Minardi roots run deep at STR, and the back of the grid will be a familiar place for the team. With an all-new driver line up in ‘09, we can say goodbye to STR as a front runner. As a contender, we hardly knew you, Toro Rosso.

Incredible! Now, that is the way to finish the World Championship.

Great race to Felipe Massa. Congratulations to Lewis Hamilton.

Grand Prix DB provides each driver’s statistical rating prior to the start of the race. A rating of 1.00 is the highest possible score. Here are the Grand Prix DB Power Ratings for the Brazilian GP:

1. Lewis Hamilton, 0.84
2. Felipe Massa, 0.83
3. Fernando Alonso, 0.79
4. Sebastian Vettel, 0.79
5. Robert Kubica, 0.76
6. Nick Heidfeld, 0.75
7. Heikki Kovalainen, 0.62
8. Timo Glock, 0.61
9. Kimi Raikkonen, 0.60
10. Sebastien Bourdais, 0.56
11. Jarno Trulli, 0.55
12. Nico Rosberg, 0.53
13. Mark Webber, 0.52
14. Nelson Piquet Jr, 0.50
15. Kazuki Nakajima, 0.45
16. David Coulthard, 0.43
17. Jenson Button, 0.40
18. Rubens Barrichello, 0.33
19. Giancarlo Fisichella, 0.29
20. Adrian Sutil, 0.23

While Lewis Hamilton has full control of his destiny, all Felipe Massa has to be concerned about is winning the race and let the rest sort itself out. Massa is in a great position to win the race, although if it does rain on race day, it could throw the race into a lottery. Ultimately, form should hold, and expect Hamilton to leave the race as the new World Champion.

As far as the weather, it would be nice if the rain came and played into the hands of the cars heavier on fuel. Qualifying was fairly closely matched, and another surprise result would be a nice way to end the season.

Grand Prix DB provides each driver’s statistical rating prior to the start of the race. A rating of 1.00 is the highest possible score. Here are the Grand Prix DB Power Ratings for the Chinese GP:

1. Lewis Hamilton, 0.83
2. Felipe Massa, 0.83
3. Fernando Alonso, 0.80
4. Robert Kubica, 0.75
5. Nick Heidfeld, 0.73
6. Heikki Kovalainen, 0.73
7. Sebastian Vettel, 0.71
8. Timo Glock, 0.62
9. Kimi Raikkonen, 0.60
10. Jarno Trulli, 0.58
11. Nico Rosberg, 0.55
12. Mark Webber, 0.53
13. Sebastien Bourdais, 0.53
14. Nelson Piquet Jr, 0.51
15. Kazuki Nakajima, 0.44
16. Jenson Button, 0.42
17. David Coulthard, 0.41
18. Rubens Barrichello, 0.31
19. Giancarlo Fisichella, 0.29
20. Adrian Sutil, 0.25

The big news of the session is that Kubica did not make it out of Q2. Once again, BMW Sauber could not get on top of the tire situation, and bad timing for Kubica that he was on the wrong end of the team’s shortcomings in qualifying this time. It seems fitting that in the most important qualifying session of the season for Kubica as far as the Championship is concerned, that the team could not rise to the occasion and deliver a faster package. Perhaps he will load up on fuel for tomorrow and hope for the best.

To add insult to injury for BMW Sauber, Heidfeld committed a clear infraction in Q1 by moving on Mark Webber on what appeared to be an in lap for Heidfeld. The incident was shown to everyone on the world feed. Given how liberally the stewards have given out penalties, expect Heidfeld to be dropped five places on the grid.

For the Ferrari drivers, tomorrow will all come down to the start and how well Raikkonen and Massa can manage their tires. They do not seem to have to pace to match Hamilton, although Ferrari have tended to improve their pace in races relative to qualifying this season. The pressure is now really on Massa.

Once again, Hamilton has the Championship in his grasp. And I fully expect that this time, he will do what it takes to clinch the title. He is in the best position possible to prove his detractors wrong and also become the youngest World Champion in history.

For the last four months, Robert Kubica has been pleading his case in the press for his BMW Sauber team to fully support his efforts to win the Driver’s Championship in 2008. And finally, with just two races left in the season, the team principals have expressed support for their driver.

While such statements make for a nice feel-good story, it couldn’t have come at any less effective of a time. With Kubica 12 points down to leader Lewis Hamilton, the distinct disadvantage in terms of pace that BMW Sauber have to the two leading teams, McLaren and Ferrari, means that it is only a matter of time before the Pole is mathematically eliminated from contention. As a matter of fact, he must finish at least two places ahead of Hamilton in this weekend’s Chinese Grand Prix (provided Kubica finishes first or second) in order to carry his slimmest of opportunities to the last event in Brazil.

Since there are no longer any testing days available, the best the team can now do is focus their weekend preparations on maximizing Kubica’s performance. Later today in Friday practice, Heidfeld’s program will probably be primarily devoted to tire testing for Kubica’s setups. The team must finally get on top of the tire pressure mysteries that have affected the car in qualifying and races. It will also be interesting to see on Saturday if they play a hand with Heidfeld’s qualifying fuel load if the German makes it into Q3.

But it could all be for naught if Kubica cannot show the pace to keep up with whoever sets the best times. The only way Kubica has a chance is if he wins. So his competition is not necessarily Ferrari or McLaren. He may have to fight with Alonso or Vettel if the weekend ends up once again getting turned upside down.

Many supporters cite the 17 point deficit that Kimi Raikkonen overcame last year in defeating Hamilton as a prime example that similar good fortune can come Kubica’s way. Unfortunately, the difference is that BMW Sauber have not shown the potential to dominate a weekend the way that Ferrari showed last year. And as much as I enjoy watching Kubica drive a racing car and compete, I do not see him winning or even finishing second in both races to end 2008.

As I mentioned in previous posts, BMW Sauber had to throw their support behind Kubica in the Summer, when they could have capitalized on the many mistakes made by the other contenders. Instead, they appeared to lose their way in terms of developing the car and managing their weekends. Also, the team seemingly became distracted by the fate of their other driver, Nick Heidfeld, until he was renewed right before the last race in Japan. In hindsight and now knowing how the season has unfolded, it is clear that BMW Sauber have let a great opportunity slip right through their hands.

With a remarkable performance in Japan, Fernando Alonso took his second successive win of the season, this time over Robert Kubica. Both drove extremely well in what may have been the best race of the season. And in what has become the theme of 2008, the title contenders managed to once again throw away their opportunities.

Confirming the dramatic uptick in performance for the Renault team, Nelson Piquet finished a strong fourth in what was certainly his best performance of the year. The next six months will be very interesting to see if Alonso decides to stay at Renault and how the team will build on its progress going into next season. I wonder how their KERS system is coming along…

After dismal displays of driving early in the race, both Lewis Hamilton and Felipe Massa deservedly received drive-through penalties. It is understandable that Massa was fighting with a sense of desperation. However, it is bewildering how many big chances Hamilton took at the beginning of the race. After showing surprising maturity in Singapore, the Championship leader showed an even more surprising regression to his old impulsive ways in the very next event. Luckily for Hamilton, Massa’s own transgressions ensured that he left Japan with his points lead mostly intact. As I mentioned after qualifying, I would be surprised if Hamilton throws the Championship away for the second season in a row, now with only two races remaining.

Many fans may appreciate the unpredicability of this season and the ups and downs experienced by the front runners. However, I think it’s a sign that neither Hamilton, Massa, or Kimi Raikkonen are worthy successors to the throne that was vacated by Michael Schumacher. The fact that Robert Kubica is still in contention driving a car that is well behind both the McLaren and Ferrari (and now perhaps even behind Renault) is enough evidence that the four drivers (the three plus Heikki Kovalainen) piloting the runaway two best cars of the field have not lived up to the capabilities offered to them by their equipment. It is almost unfortunate that either Hamilton or Massa will end up winning the Championship.

While Kubica is still mathematically in the hunt, it is an impossible task for him to reach the top spot. If not for a big lull in perfomance by his BMW Sauber team in the middle of the season, Kubica might be leading the points. Then he might have had a chance. But for him to overcome a 12-point deficit (13 to actually win the Championship) in what is now the fourth best car in the field is even more unlikely than Raikkonen’s 17-point gap last year. Still he has had some outstanding performances this year, and it is too bad he was not in a Ferrari. I hope BMW Sauber can raise its game in ‘09.

The last two races have completely restored Alonso’s stature in F1 after his reputation-shattering season in ‘07. He very well may be, in the words of Ross Brawn, the “best driver” in the series. While his victory in Singapore may have been lucky, it is easy to forget that he was definitely on the pace in practice and in Q1. Then his win earlier today in Japan has confirmed that Renault has raised its game and Alonso has driven like a champion in order to take full advantage. Like Kubica it is too bad Alonso was not in a Ferrari.

So now we immediately move on to China for the penultimate round of the Championship. We all know how that race ended up in ‘07. And same as last year, if Hamilton can manage to leave the race with a 10-point lead, he will win the title. However, unlike last year, I think he will end up doing it. And thankfully, the ‘08 driver’s crown will then be decided, so that we can move on to what promises to be the start of a new era in 2009.

Grand Prix DB provides each driver’s statistical rating prior to the start of the race. A rating of 1.00 is the highest possible score. Here are the Grand Prix DB Power Ratings for the Japanese GP:

1. Lewis Hamilton, 0.90
2. Felipe Massa, 0.85
3. Heikki Kovalainen, 0.82
4. Robert Kubica, 0.76
5. Fernando Alonso, 0.73
6. Nick Heidfeld, 0.71
7. Sebastian Vettel, 0.69
8. Timo Glock, 0.65
9. Kimi Raikkonen, 0.58
10. Jarno Trulli, 0.56
11. Nico Rosberg, 0.56
12. Nelson Piquet Jr, 0.52
13. Sebastien Bourdais, 0.49
14. David Coulthard, 0.49
15. Mark Webber, 0.48
16. Kazuki Nakajima, 0.46
17. Jenson Button, 0.40
18. Giancarlo Fisichella, 0.29
19. Adrian Sutil, 0.27
20. Rubens Barrichello, 0.25

The staff of Grand Prix DB took a Fall break between grands prix and came back to what could effectively be the coronation of Lewis Hamilton as the next World Champion. True, he is only seven points ahead of Felipe Massa with three races to go, but the gap may was well be 27 with the opposing directions that McLaren and Ferrari have been headed these past few races.

Ferrari’s season was summed up metaphorically in Singapore, where a Massa podium and very likely victory was squandered by human error. Almost surprisingly, McLaren and Hamilton showed restraint and settled for a sensible third place. The result will almost certainly be the difference maker in a season punctuated by more unforced errors from the leading drivers and teams than we have seen in decades.

Massa is not known as a great come-from-behind driver, so his fifth grid spot will prove to be a heavy handicap considering two McLarens are starting in front of him. In addition, if Fernando Alonso manages to protect his position ahead of Massa into the first corner, it may be a very long afternoon for the Brazilian.

Kimi Raikkonen’s return to form is too late to make up for his own deficit in the ‘08 Championship. And it will be difficult for him to play a spoiler if Hamilton continues to finish ahead of Massa. He has said all along he will go for wins, and he has a great opportunity to do so. He might be heavier on fuel than both Hamilton and Massa, and with the right execution, Raikkonen can convert this strategy into a victory.

But in the end, it all comes back to Hamilton. He could not have asked for anything better than starting on pole. He can now apply his usual Sunday aggression from a safe starting spot and with a cushion in the points if anything unforeseen occurs. And as we saw in Singapore, Hamilton is now aware that to win a championship, he does not need to try to win races at all costs.

Perhaps, it can be said that Ferrari’s transition into the post-Michael Schumacher era is now complete. In hindsight, their remarkable execution in the final races of ‘07 that thrust Raikkonen to the World Championship may have had more to do with the lasting effects of having a seven-time champion as the centerpiece of the organization than the succession plan that saw an overhaul of the operations heading into ‘07. The pundits who suggested the demise of the Ferrari dynasty following Schumacher’s retirement may have been proven wrong last year, but now we are witnessing a Ferrari team that is performing the way its detractors predicted it would.

This is all good news for Hamilton, who now has a second chance for glory following his historic implosion last year. All he needs to do is collect solid points and the Championship will be his. The situation may resemble last year’s. However, Hamilton is now a wiser competitor and I would be surprised if he throws it all away again.

Grand Prix DB provides each driver’s statistical rating prior to the start of the race. A rating of 1.00 is the highest possible score. Here are the Grand Prix DB Power Ratings for the Singapore GP:

1. Lewis Hamilton, 0.91
2. Felipe Massa, 0.88
3. Heikki Kovalainen, 0.84
4. Nick Heidfeld, 0.80
5. Robert Kubica, 0.75
6. Kimi Raikkonen, 0.65
7. Fernando Alonso, 0.63
8. Sebastian Vettel, 0.61
9. Jarno Trulli, 0.60
10. Timo Glock, 0.60
11. Nico Rosberg, 0.55
12. Mark Webber, 0.53
13. Nelson Piquet Jr, 0.52
14. Kazuki Nakajima, 0.49
15. Sebastien Bourdais, 0.45
16. Jenson Button, 0.41
17. David Coulthard, 0.39
18. Rubens Barrichello, 0.35
19. Giancarlo Fisichella, 0.27
20. Adrian Sutil, 0.25

Although Massa was fractions behind Hamilton in every session through Q1, the Brazilian caught fire in Q2 en route to setting the fastest times in the last two qualifying sessions and taking pole by a considerable margin. The suggestion is that Ferrari is playing a fuel load game, but that would run counter to their typical approach to races. The fact that Massa had considerable pace in Q2 and followed that by a scintillating lap in Q3 can be interpreted that he is not particularly light on fuel.

Ferrari also appear to have a better understanding of the tire compounds this weekend than McLaren, as evidenced by Hamilton’s struggles in Q2. And the fact is Massa is not a smoke-and-mirrors driver and typically he is either on his game or not. Massa and Ferrari seem to be on the top of their game, and Massa looks very strong for tomorrow. A win would place him at the top of the driver’s standings.

Hamilton for the second race weekend in a row had a mysterious Q2 and nearly didn’t make it into Q3. But as we saw at Monza, his Q2 performance said very little about what we can expect from him in the race. However, Peter Sauber recently accused Hamilton of buckling under pressure and tomorrow’s race has all the signs of being a pressure cooker. Not only does Hamilton have a slight disadvantage in car performance, but Raikkonen has surprisingly (of late) qualified well and could play a role in disrupting Hamilton’s race. These are the moments where Hamilton either rises above the occasion or implodes with a critical error.

Meanwhile in the fourth position is Kubica who, as earlier in the season is well poised to take advantage other others’ mistakes. If only BMW Sauber given the Pole more support in the middle of the season to keep him closer in the points battle. As I have alluded to before, Championship opportunities don’t come by very often, and with all the mistakes made by McLaren and Ferrari this season, BMW Sauber may come to regret that they did not make a stronger push to capitalize on their good fortune that followed them all the way to Canada.